By the numbers, Foursquare just doesn't stand a chance.

I get a lot of questions — from clients, from coworkers, from audiences at speaking engagements — about location-based apps. Namely, people want to know which one or ones I recommend using. And since November 2010, my answer has been consistent: Facebook Places.

Why November 2010? Because that's when Facebook announced Deals, a much-needed addition to Places that finally gave businesses a reason to claim their locations on Facebook. Deals made it simple to offer discounts or other promotional offers as rewards for fans "checking in" from their smart phones.

From that moment on, Foursquare has been dead to me. And as you can see in the chart above, I'm not alone.

Excerpted from a much larger graphic created by Beyond for the SocialLoco Conference (which you can see here), the chart illustrates the check-in preferences of both Early Adopters like myself and the Mass Consumers our clients are trying to reach.

For those already using location-based apps, Facebook Places is the clear dominator, with 90% saying they would use it. Meanwhile, a mere 22% would go for Foursquare.

Among mass consumers who aren't using location apps, Facebook still dominates with 55% preference, while Foursquare is just north of being a rounding error at 6%.

So why would you or your brand ever bother with a tool like Foursquare or Gowalla? Well, both have unique offerings that are considerably more robust than Facebook's. Foursquare specifically deserves praise for its huge addition of new features in the recent "3.0" rollout.

And while I still enjoy using Foursquare (more, I must say, than I enjoy using the far-less-private Facebook Places), I just can't get past the raw numbers.

More than 150 million Americans currently use Facebook, and roughly half of them own smart phones capable of location-based check-ins. Such a monstrous number absolutely dwarfs Foursquare's otherwise-impressive user base of 8 million.

So for those who wonder why I give so much preference to Facebook Places, I would ask you this: How much better would Foursquare need to be for it to justify reaching a smart phone audience 90% smaller than Facebook's?

And how much hope you can hold out for an explosion of future Foursquare growth if only 6% of nonusers are willing to give it a try?

David Griner is the Director of Digital Content for Luckie and Company and contributing editor for Adweek’s blog, AdFreak.com. You can reach him by e-mail or on Twitter.

Comments

[Brad Lowrey]

Great post and I couldn't agree more. I feel like I have been using Foursquare since day 1 and I really like the app and what it is capable of. I also hate the blatant non-privacy of Places and how semi-tedious it is to check-in (at least using the Android app). But, like you said, it comes down to numbers. I've been saying it for the last few months as well, unless Foursquare can come up with a way to battle the user numbers of Facebook, it won't stand a chance.

[Lincoln Adams]

They probably said the same thing about Firefox. Firefox, realistically competing with Microsoft's predominant IE browser?

BWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA!

Today though, it's not so funny.

Not to say Foursquare can replicate the same kind of success, but it's amazing how drastically the playing field can change in the space of a few years.

Which is funny considering I can't stand Foursquare (was a Whrrl user before they sold out, er... I mean sold to Groupon). Regardless I'm willing to give them another chance now that their 3.0 platform is out. Even better, because I can check-in to FB Places via Foursquare, I can still use Facebook's LBS by proxy, so fortunately for the time being I'm not forced to take sides. :-D

[David Griner]

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

@Lincoln, you make a good point, but I think a better metaphor might be to look at Google launching Chrome. IE is an inferior product, one that Firefox quickly and consistently surpassed. In the case of location-based apps, though, Facebook created a new offering to compete with the upstarts, more like Google leveraging its massive reach and resources to roll out Chrome.

And as you both mention, yes, Foursquare is a great tool for consumers — but I can't say I foresee it becoming a primary channel for marketers anytime soon.

[Jay Massey]

Good post David. My question ise how does this affect niche markets like a college campus?